Thought Leadership

Jan 2024

As we move into the new year 2024 and make some new year resolutions, here’s something of interest in the Bhagavad Gita - The sixth chapter of the Bhagavad Gita is known as “Dhyaana Yoga”.

Meditation is a topic that fascinates everyone. We like the idea of going to ...Read More

Dec 2023

In chapter 5 of the Bhagavad Gita, Shree Krishna compares Karm Ssanyās Yog (the path of renunciation of actions) with Karmyog (the path of work in devotion).

He says: We can choose either of the two paths, as both lead to the same destination. However, he explains that the renunciati...Read More

Nov 2023

Human beings have the privilege of acquiring knowledge and passing it on to the next generation and that is how all the different branches of knowledge have grown. Electronics, medicine etc did not evolve in one day, not by one person, nor in one lifetime. It required a couple of centuries to r...Read More

Oct 2023

Continuing our discussion on Bhagavad Gita we move on to Chapter 3 – In the previous chapters Krishna had taught Arjuna that one should be centred or maintain equanimity in pleasant and unpleasant situations. But Arjuna had not internalised and assimilated the teachings yet, he was yet no...Read More

Sep 2023

Continuing with our discussion of the Bhagavad Gita, in the second chapter Arjuna completely surrenders himself to Shri Krishna and accepts his position as a disciple and Krishna as his Guru. He requests Krishna to guide him on how to dismiss his sorrow.

In Sanskrit, yoga means not o...Read More

Aug 2023

Robert Oppenheimer, the American theoretical physicist was not alone in admiring the Hindu text, the Bhagavad Gita. Henry David Thoreau wrote, "In the morning I bathe my intellect in the stupendous and cosmogonal philosophy of the Bhagavad Gita in comparison with which our modern world and...Read More

Jul 2023

The market momentum continued into Jun-23 with a strong broad-based performance. Small and mid-caps outperformed with capital goods, auto ancillaries and defence emerging as some of the strongest sectors. The Nifty also touched a new high. Despite the strong rally, the broader markets remain re...Read More

Jun 2023

Equities performed strongly in May-23. The Nifty rallied 2.6% with an even stronger performance from small and mid-cap indices (see table below). Auto, IT and FMCG led the way with > 5% rallies while banks underperformed. The strong rally could lead to a near-term correction, but we remain c...Read More

May 2023

The Nifty rallied 4% in Apr-23 on the back of a confluence of positives. The earnings season was on track with no major negative surprises. Domestic financial conditions eased on the back of RBI’s surprise pause. Global tailwinds also helped and FPI flows added to the momentum. Reasonable...Read More

Apr 2023

2023: A Bottom-Up Market

Analysis of key numbers for FY24 gives us some comfort on the broader markets. Valuations have meaningfully corrected and should be supportive. The earnings outlook also remains positive with consensus esti...Read More

Mar 2023

The stress in the US banking system has created significant short-term risks for the equity markets. The timely and aggressive intervention by the Fed and the Treasury is likely to contain the damage but markets could, nevertheless, remain in risk-off mode for some time. This would mean that fl...Read More

Mar 2023

2023: A Bottom-Up Market

We see a bottom-up market in India over the next 2-3 quarters with no clear direction for the broader market and not too many sectoral themes playing out. Our focus remains, therefore on individual companie...Read More

Feb 2023

2023: Growth Budget – Positive for Equities

The strong Union budget for FY24 is positive for the equity markets in the medium term. The fiscal prudence, combined with improved quality of expenditure, paves the way for a mult...Read More

Jan 2023

2023: The Year of Reckoning

Dear Investors,

Happy New Year! Wish you a safe, healthy, and prosperous 2023.

There is much to be optimistic about in the coming 12 months. India’s macro should stabilise as...Read More

Dec 2022

The Nifty touched a new lifetime high on 1-Dec-22 and we see a breakout from here on the broader indices. The stars seem to be aligning for equities as headwinds from the synchronous global tightening dissipate over the next 2-3 quarters. On the other hand, we believe that the domestic economy ...Read More

Nov 2022

The markets saw a strong Oct-22 with large cap indices leading the charge. Banks and IT led the charge with significant outperformance. Hawkish commentary from the Fed has popped up as a speed-breaker in early Nov-22 and could put some dampener on near-term performance. The earning season saw s...Read More

Oct 2022

The Nifty corrected 3.7% in September 2022 after a strong 19% rally between 19-Jun 2022 and 15-Sep 2022. The sell-off was largely triggered by global factors like continuing tightening by the Fed and instability brought on by Britain’s mini-budget. We believe this noise could continue for...Read More

Sep 2022

Indian markets remained strong through Aug-2022 and we continue to be bullish on markets. The breadth of the current rally, with mid and small caps outperforming, reinforces our confidence. We believe that investors should look through near-term volatility and ensure that their long-term alloca...Read More

Aug 2022

India is poised to enter a golden phase of sustained growth over the next decade. The opportunity was always visible, but we now see a confluence of unique strengths. Favourable demographics and per capita income crossing the crucial $2000 mark^, coupled with structural enablers like digitisati...Read More

Aug 2022

The Indian rupee dropped sharply in July 2022, down 1.5% despite the strong end-of-month rally. We see however, no cause for alarm, as this is a relatively small slide compared to historical incidents, and the major headwinds seem to be dissipating. The markets and the economy should be able to...Read More

Jul 2022

The Nifty corrected sharply (8%) in early June before a muted recovery towards the end of the month. We expect continued volatility with muted market returns over the coming 1-2 quarters. A clear direction should emerge only when clarity on a number of macro factors emerge in the coming months....Read More

Jun 2022

India’s corporate earnings stayed resilient through the multiple shocks in early CY22. 4QFY22 earnings were strong with 22% PAT growth for the Nifty, driven by resilient margins despite the external shocks. More importantly, consensus estimates for FY23 and FY24 have stayed stable. We bel...Read More

May 2022

RBI’s off-cycle rate hike surprised the market more on its timing than its actual action. It has been apparent from the beginning of CY22 that the rate cycle had bottomed out and a period of normalisation would soon begin. Beyond the immediate shock of the sudden announcement, we think a ...Read More

Apr 2022

We see the end of a 4-6month period when the market was disrupted by external factors – the Fed rate hike and the Ukraine war. The domestic economy should now take centre-stage: growth, opening-up, a strong agri recovery, and the capex cycle being the key drivers. Broader market returns a...Read More

Mar 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has accelerated the recent market correction. We see continued volatility in the near-term as the geopolitical risks may take some time to recede. However, we remain bullish on FY23 fundamentals for Indian companies, and see this period of uncertainty as an op...Read More

Feb 2022

The FY23 Union Budget continued the government’s renewed focus on growth recovery that began last year. The preference for government capex over consumption stimuli was reinforced as the government stayed with its belief that this creates structural growth. The other notable feature was t...Read More

Nov 2021

A volatile October 2021 ended on a weak note, but the market was flat over the month. SMID* sectors underperformed, along with high-beta sectors like commodities. We remain optimistic on the markets given the strong growth rebound, resilient earnings and broadening base of publicly listed compa...Read More

Oct 2021

The markets were strong through September 2021 with a 2.8% rally in the Nifty led by Nifty Realty, Auto and Infra. Small- and mid-caps had a strong month with 2x returns over the broader markets (see table below). The focus now shifts to domestic financial stability and the opening-up of the ec...Read More

Sep 2021

August 2021 was a strong month for the Nifty (+8.7%) with IT, FMCG and Energy leading the rally. There was some volatility, especially around the scare of a Fed taper, but that quickly dissipated on the back of a recovering economy and strong earnings momentum. We remain positive on the markets...Read More

Aug 2021

July’21 was another flat month for the indices (Nifty +0.3 %) with interesting internals: small- and mid- caps outperformed with IT, consumers and healthcare the key sectoral leaders at the expense of financials and metals. The momentum, however, returned towards the end of the month. We ...Read More

Jul 2021

The markets had a quiet June, with the Nifty flat (+1%) and defensive sectors like IT and FMCG outperforming – banks were the major drag. The lull could last for some time, but we believe this is a pause in a longer bull market driven by a strong economic recovery and earnings improvement...Read More

Jun 2021

The markets bounced back in May after two flat months, led primarily by the second Covid wave starting to recede and some acceleration in vaccination. Some of the laggard sectors over Feb-Mar ’21 like banking, auto, energy and infrastructure led the market revival. The earnings season was...Read More

May 2021

We hope that you and your loved ones are safe and healthy. The second Covid wave in India has been more deadly and widespread than the first, and has had a devastating impact on many families. Markets have been resilient through the second Covid wave, largely due to two reasons. First, the glob...Read More

Apr 2021

We are now faced with a sudden surge of Covid cases, especially in Mumbai and Maharashtra. We hope that you and your loved ones are safe and healthy. We urge you to be careful and observe the necessary precautions – wearing masks, washing hands frequently and observing social distance.&nb...Read More

Mar 2021

We expect increased market choppiness in March after the relentless one-way upswing for almost a year. Some near-term headwinds are building up: rising yields both in India and the US, rising COVID infections and commodity price pressures.This looks like a temporary blip – ...Read More

Feb 2021

The watershed FY22 budget has, in our view, changed the trajectory of the Indian economy and the markets. We now see a sustained recovery out of the post-pandemic slump and a multi-year growth cycle of 6%+, led by capital expenditure. This should support a strong market for the next few quarter...Read More

Jan 2021

We see markets remaining strong through CY21, based on global liquidity and a recovering domestic economy. The x-factor     is likely to come from a robust global commodities rally, which creates some peculiar conditions for the Indian economy and  the markets. Our focu...Read More

Dec 2020

It was another strong month for the markets with the Nifty rising 11.4 % led by banks, metals and capital goods. The key drivers were a) a favourable outcome on the US elections which helped contain global macro risks, b) continued normalisation in the Indian economy, reinforced by news of an i...Read More

Nov 2020

The RBI working committee’s recommendation that corporate-promoted banks be awarded licenses should be implemented. India needs loan growth in double-digits for GDP above 6% - and we are stuck in a 6-8% rut for some time now. Faster loan growth will need new banks, and most viable model i...Read More

Nov 2020

The markets have bounced back sharply. Nifty was up 3.5% in October 2020 with the Nifty Bank leading the way with a 11.4% rally. This was led mainly by strong numbers and the positive commentary from private banks, giving the market greater comfort on asset quality issues. The broader economic ...Read More

Oct 2020

The Nifty was soft in September with a -1.2% fall through the month – the main impact was on the Bank Nifty which fell -9.7%. The cuts were deeper intra-month, but a late rally helped recover some of the losses. We expect the broader indices to remain sideways for the next few months, tho...Read More

Sep 2020

The markets continued to be strong with the Nifty rallying 3% in August, and the improved breadth evident in NSE Midcap (up 7.8%) and NSE Small cap (up 11.5%) both outperforming. Despite the markets looking through the 1Q GDP contraction of 23.9%, macro trends and earnings visibility will be th...Read More

Aug 2020

RBI's restructuring guidelines of 6 August 2020 protect the largest and most volatile sector from near-term shocks. This is an important positive for the market and reduces the short-term downside risks. However, macro challenges persist, and we expected a slow recovery as the effects of th...Read More

Jun 2020

The Nifty had been resilient with a 3% correction in May'2020 followed by a 6% bounce in June’2020 (as on 08 June 2020). A clear direction will emerge, we think, only when there is greater visibility on the damage to the economy from the COVD-19 crisis. The ne...Read More

May 2020

The market  rallied in April after  a weak 1 QCY20 — the Nifty was up 14.7% last month (as on 30th April 2020) after a 23.2%  correction  in March 2020. We, however,  believe  that  significant  risks still remain and continue to be cautio...Read More

Mar 2020

The spread of the Corona virus, and its second-order impact on both India and the world, is a new and significant headwind for the market. A sharp slow-down in discretionary consumption could hurt near-term earnings, even for high-quality companies. The resultant valuation compression would lea...Read More

Feb 2020

Union Budget FY21

The initial negative market reaction to the budget was more to do with unrealistic expectations than any negatives in the budget itself. As we argued last year, the impact of the budget on earnings and the market has diminished over time. The lack o...Read More

Dec 2019

The markets remained resilient through November 2019 with the Nifty rising 2.2% and the NSE Midcap rising 5.7%. The NSE Bank was one of the key sectoral indices, rising >8% this month.

The concurrent indicators for the economy remained weak. Industrial growth was sluggish and the ...Read More

Nov 2019

October 2019 was another strong month for equities, with the Nifty rising 3.5% on the back of a 4% rally in September. A notable feature was that the Nifty midcap outperformed the Nifty, rising by 4.9%. The sectoral performance remained tilted towards Autos and FMCG, with banks slightly underpe...Read More

Sep 2019

The 7% correction† in the market (with poor inter-nals) since April 2019 has created a better sync between expectations and reality. The momentum in the economy remains poor and gives little reason for comfort, but some government action has created the hope for a recovery later this yea...Read More

Aug 2019

The rate cut has come and gone, but the post-budget sell-off in equities seems to be unabated and broad-based. The FPI tax was a small catalyst - the markets have belatedly started tracking the broader economy. The silver lining is that some enablers for a macro recovery are in place, but we se...Read More

Jun 2019

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance won an absolute majority in India's parliamentary elections last month. This paved the way for Narendra Modi to be re-appointed as Prime Minister for a second consecutive term. The markets have responded positively to the results, with the Nifty rall...Read More